Blackrock

Week Ending 10th December

Sat, 25 Dec 2010 17:13:56 -0100

The week's big story came in bond markets as government yields rose sharply in the US and core European markets. US 10-year yields saw their steepest rise since 2008, adding over 30 basis points in just one week. Since early October, yields have now risen nearly 100 basis points from a low of less than 2.4%. Other bond markets were affected too, with gilt and bund yields now up 70 basis points and 80 basis points respectively from the lows.

Week Ending 18th December 2010

Thu, 06 Jan 2011 19:27:51 -0100

There has been more of an edgier feel to market conditions over the last week. We’ve seen equities trade in very tight ranges in recent days, importantly remaining at, or close to, new highs for the year. In the UK, for example, we saw the FTSE 100 Index creep over 5,900. Commodities have generally been flat following the significant run up in prices witnessed in previous weeks

Week Ending - 7th January 2010

Wed, 12 Jan 2011 13:31:54 -0100

The first week of the new year saw relatively benign performance from a range of markets, with equities in the US, Europe and China all up between 1% and 3%. Government bonds were little changed on the week. Currencies saw most of the action with the euro dropping more than 3% and the yen more than 2% versus the dollar. Commodities began the year...

Week Ending - 14th January 2010

Thu, 20 Jan 2011 11:06:23 -0100

The risk trade has been continuing since the end of last year; the S&P 500 has risen about 3% in the last couple of weeks and this move is fairly representative of other major markets. There have been some important exceptions, such as the significant bounce in share prices in Italy and the increase of around 10% in Spanish equity prices.

Week ending - 21st January 2010

Tue, 25 Jan 2011 12:00:26 -0100

The week was a fairly mixed one for risk assets. Most equity markets lost ground, with the US losing just under 1%, the UK down around 1.6%. Asian markets were hit harder, with Hong Kong down nearly 2% and Japan ending the week down over 2.8%. The one outlier in equities was the performance of the European markets, with the Eurostoxx up over 1.5%.

Week ending - 28th January 2010

Tue, 01 Feb 2011 13:20:57 -0100

It has been a relatively flat week for equities, despite the correction on Friday. The correction leaves most equity markets down from the highs that were reached earlier in the month, but so far we have not seen much appetite for a more sustained correction. The big exception here is in emerging markets. The Indian stock market has declined by about 12-13% this year, illustrating the negative impact of actual and potential monetary policy tightening.

week ending - 4th February 2010

Tue, 08 Feb 2011 11:37:37 -0100

This was a stronger week for risk assets, driven by supportive news about the US economy and a relatively relaxed European Central Bank (ECB) meeting. There was also some relief that the situation in Egypt may be approaching some form of negotiated solution. Equity market performance generally showed a more bullish tone than last week. The S&P500 gained over 2.5% on the week, with the UK, Europe and Japan up nearly 2%.

Week Ending - 18th February

Wed, 23 Feb 2011 04:21:22 -0100

Risk assets had yet another week of gains, with equities in the US and Europe up around 1%. Asian markets were stronger as the Nikkei rose 1.5% and Hong Kong was up over 3%. Bond markets were only marginally stronger on the whole, following the previous week’s losses. The big story in currency markets was the rebound of the euro and sterling compared to the dollar

Weekly Update to 25th February 2011

Tue, 01 Mar 2011 05:05:14 -0100

It has been another volatile week for markets largely as a result of events in the Middle East, particularly Libya. Volatility was most evident in the oil market where Brent Crude hit $120 per barrel, although it did fall back later in the week to end slightly above $110 per barrel. Other commodity prices were more stable; gold for example did not follow oil’s pattern and remained stable at around $1400/oz.

Weekly Update 4th March 2011

Tue, 08 Mar 2011 14:03:57 -0100

It has been a volatile, but rather trendless week in many financial markets with events in the Middle East, and particularly Libya, dominating without providing clear direction. Developed markets rose very slightly this week, but have essentially remained flat over the past month.

Week Ending - March 11th 2011

Tue, 15 Mar 2011 05:57:38 -0100

It has clearly been another risk-off week in financial markets. Most developed market equity indices are off by about 3%, but we are still not talking about a major correction. These indices are only around 4% or 5% away from the peaks they reached in the middle of February and selling pressure has never been particularly intense, as witnessed by volume levels which have not spiked to very high levels...

week ending - 18th March 2011

Sat, 26 Mar 2011 08:24:28 -0100

It has been a very volatile week in financial markets following the Japanese earthquake, but one which we can divide into two parts. Risk assets fell very sharply in the early part of the week, but witnessed some recovery later on. Taking Japanese equities as an example, they were down 20% at one stage, but recovered to finish the week only about 10% off pre-earthquake highs. The damage to other equity markets turned out to be less substantial; the S&P ended the week around 2% down and is still only 6% away from the high point reached in mid-February.

week ending - 18th March 2011

Sat, 26 Mar 2011 08:25:14 -0100

part of the week, but witnessed some recovery later on. Taking Japanese equities as an example, they were down 20% at one stage, but recovered to finish the week only about 10% off pre-earthquake highs. The damage to other equity markets turned out to be less substantial; the S&P ended the week around 2% down and is still only 6% away from the high point reached in mid-February.

week ending - 25th March 2011

Tue, 29 Mar 2011 05:31:24 -0100

It has been a pretty good week in equity and commodity markets and it looks as if animal sprits have begun to reassert themselves. Most major equity indices returned around 3%- 4%. Oil enjoyed strong markets, with the WTI rising nearly 4% this week and industrial metals, gold and the agricultural complex saw gains all round.

week ending - 1st April 2011

Tue, 05 Apr 2011 09:20:33 -0100

Breaking the recent pattern, financial markets were not dominated by either political events in the Middle East or the earthquake in Japan this week. This shift away from event risk and towards fundamentals allowed equity markets to rally further, largely on the back of supportive economic news.

week ending - 8th April 2011

Wed, 13 Apr 2011 08:24:22 -0100

Continuing last week’s theme, investors were less focused on event risk and fundamentals were once more allowed to assert themselves. As a result, developed equity markets tended to grind slightly higher and emerging markets outperformed. There were some big moves in commodity prices, with pride of place going to oil.

week ending - 15th April 2011

Tue, 19 Apr 2011 06:33:07 -0100

It has been a week in which risk assets have largely fallen price. This move was led by European equities, but indices in the emerging Far East and the US were not immune from the general drift down. Following a similar trend, commodity prices generally declined, with oil leading the way and weakness seen in industrial metals and soft commodities.

week ending - 15th April 2011

Tue, 19 Apr 2011 06:33:50 -0100

It has been a week in which risk assets have largely fallen in price. This move was led by European equities, but indices in the emerging Far East and the US were not immune from the general drift down. Following a similar trend, commodity prices generally declined, with oil leading the way and weakness seen in industrial metals and soft commodities.

To 2nd May 2011

Wed, 04 May 2011 09:56:52 -0100

Looking back over last week, we saw rises in world stock markets and commodity prices, the US Fed holding on to very loose monetary policy, a falling US dollar and strengthening yen as well as further rumblings about budget deficits and potential restructuring in the Eurozone and a decline in Chinese equities.

week ending - 6th May 2011

Thu, 12 May 2011 14:09:39 -0100

Commodities took centre stage last week with major corrections in many metals, soft commodities and oil. Silver fell nearly 30%, oil, corn and copper by around 10%. The gold price dropped less than most other commodities, but still declined. Most equity markets also saw material corrections.

Week Ending - 20th May 2011

Tue, 24 May 2011 12:33:10 -0100

It has been a relatively quiet week in financial markets. Most equity markets have remained in relatively tight ranges and although most indices are off their peaks and cyclical stocks have underperformed more defensive shares, selling pressure has been relatively limited. Commodity prices have also been more stable, following the major sell-off earlier in the month.

to 30th May 2011

Thu, 02 Jun 2011 08:43:44 -0100

Last week equity markets recovered some of the ground which they lost in May and commodities also rallied. The current pattern sees strength in equities and commodities when the US dollar falls, and weakness when the US dollar rises. This high correlation at the moment is one of the main features driving risk assets in either direction.

to June 3rd 2010

Tue, 07 Jun 2011 19:48:28 -0100

Following another week of declines in most stock markets, our main focus is the recent weakness in global equities and whether this weakness will persist in the second half of the year. The risk-off phase in financial markets emerged at the end of April and has continued while facing yet more evidence of slower economic growth.

to June 3rd 2011

Tue, 07 Jun 2011 19:52:08 -0100

to 17th June 2011

Tue, 21 Jun 2011 13:19:43 -0100

The past few days have once again proved difficult for global financial markets, although courtesy of a bounce on Friday, most risk assets were largely unchanged on the week. Sovereign bonds in the major economies were also generally flat. However, the key equity indices are still within striking distance of the March lows, so while we can say that most indices are still range bound, it is important to stress that we are very much at the lower end of those ranges.

to 24th June 2011

Mon, 27 Jun 2011 22:14:53 -0100

Greece came back to have a significant impact on sentiment this week. Investors have been focusing on the growing likelihood of a Greek default...

to July 1st 2011

Mon, 04 Jul 2011 23:59:10 -0100

It has been an interesting week in financial markets, with the past few days seeing a significant bounce in risk assets. Most equity indices are now around 5% higher than a few days ago; the S&P 500 rose from the lower end of its year-to-date range to much closer to the upper end. Although that also says something about the small trading range we have seen in recent months.

to July 8th 2011

Tue, 12 Jul 2011 00:06:13 -0100

Last week, despite a fair amount of gloom, equity markets tended to be either flat or slightly up. Gold appreciated by almost 4% and the euro declined by 2%. This week the EU bank stress tests will be announced at the end of week and we will continue to watch the negotiations between finance ministers in the EU around what is politically acceptable and what is financially practical.

to July 15th 2011

Mon, 18 Jul 2011 23:57:28 -0100

It has been another difficult week in financial markets and again the roots of the stresses have been in Europe as the sovereign debt and fiscal issues continue. European equities have continued to decline. The Eurostoxx 50 was down more than 4% last week and has broken below the March lows to reach the lowest point of the year.

to 22nd July 2011

Tue, 26 Jul 2011 00:55:13 -0100

The story this week is one of two sovereign debt crises, one in Europe and one in the United States.

European Sovereign Debt: The council of ministers’ decisions on Thursday have reduced the chance of the deep Greek fiscal crisis having a domino effect, knocking down banks and governments elsewhere in Europe – at least for the time being....

to 5th August 2011

Thu, 11 Aug 2011 12:10:20 -0100

Equities fell by around 10% last week, with little significant variation across markets and regions. Many commodity prices were down on average by about the same amount, with the exception of gold, where further slight gains were made. Currencies in general were more stable, with little change in the euro/dollar rate.

to 12th August 2011

Tue, 16 Aug 2011 02:26:37 -0100

Over the course of the last five days, there has approximately been a 2% decline in the Dow, a 4% decline in the EuroStoxx, a 3.6% decline in the Nikeii, a 6.5% decline in the Hang Seng and the FTSE 100 is up about 0.6%.

Libor/OIS spreads have increased in Europe from 50 to 67 basis points, signalling the degree of funding stress in Europe.

to 19th August 2011

Tue, 23 Aug 2011 07:00:45 -0100

There is only one way to describe last week: “traumatic.” Most major equity indices declined very sharply, giving back all of the gains made in the second half of the previous week. Bond markets rallied strongly, with the US 10-year at one stage on Thursday trading below 2% and the gold price has reached $1850.

to September 2nd 2011

Sun, 11 Sep 2011 12:14:11 -0100

Last week was a poor week for risk assets with the return of concerns about European political problems, very poor US job numbers and a slew of data releases around the world which continued to underpin the theme of slowing economic momentum.

to 9th September 2011

Wed, 14 Sep 2011 01:40:07 -0100

It has been another challenging week for financial markets and once again Europe has been in the eye of the storm. European equities were down by almost 7% this week, US equities by around 4% and UK stocks were slightly more defensive, falling only 2%

to 19th September 2011

Wed, 21 Sep 2011 12:31:49 -0100

It was a better week for equity investors, with world equity markets rising anywhere between 2% and 7%. The notable exceptions were the Hang Seng and some of the other Asian indices. Prompted by recent developments, investors have begun to look towards better outcomes for the European fiscal and banking crisis.

to 26th September 2011

Mon, 03 Oct 2011 01:44:02 -0100

It has been a pretty challenging week in global financial markets, even by comparison to recent weeks. Global equity markets fell between 5% and 10% amid extreme risk aversion.

to 30th September 2011

Tue, 04 Oct 2011 02:37:50 -0100

Overall, last week was a good one for equity investors with many indices ending the period in positive territory. For example, the eurostoxx index rose by 7.6%, the FTSE All Share by just over 1% and the Nikkei by 1.5%. However, most of that rise was in the first few days of the week in response to the positive noises emanating from the IMF meeting in Washington about the need for a European solution.

to 7th October 2011

Tue, 11 Oct 2011 02:06:19 -0100

The level of volatility in financial markets has remained very high this week. To put this in context, we will isolate the key drivers of market trends over the past couple of months and then examine the ways in which the global financial background has evolved more recently.

to 14th October 2011

Tue, 18 Oct 2011 05:03:04 -0100

It was an encouraging week for global equity markets and risk assets in general. Equity markets rose 6% in the US over the last week, 3% in the UK, 4 % in Europe and 4% in Hong Kong. Commodity prices have also risen, with the oil price climbing 7%, natural gas and silver 6% and copper, which has been lagging significantly, rose 1.2%.

to 21st October 2011

Tue, 25 Oct 2011 09:50:47 -0100

The last few days have seen rather patchy trading with most markets either up or down by relatively small amounts. Overall there remains a slight bias towards the recent persistent bounce in risk assets.

to 28th October 2011

Wed, 09 Nov 2011 07:23:34 -0100

There have been some very substantial swings in financial markets over the past few days. October has been a significant risk-on month, with this week exemplifying that trend. Since the end of September, European equities have led the pack, but there have also been broad based returns in other equity market and a risk assets.

to 11th November 2011

Tue, 15 Nov 2011 07:00:20 -0100

Politics, and European politics in particular, have once more dominated the investment scene this week. The swing of sentiment surrounding the installation of a new government in Greece, ejection of Silvio Berlusconi and subsequent replacement with Mario Monti in Italy drove both stock and bond markets.

to 18th November 2011

Wed, 23 Nov 2011 05:52:53 -0100

It’s been another risk-off week in financial markets, following the same pattern of returns as has characterised such periods recently. Over the past few days most equity markets have fallen by around 3-4%, with little regional distinction. Even European equities did not particularly underperform, despite Europe remaining very much the epicentre of financial market tensions.

to 2nd December 2011

Tue, 06 Dec 2011 00:50:05 -0100

The main focus this week will be trying to put the events of the last few days and their causes into some sort of broader context. Most risk assets struggled significantly for much of November, but have rebounded very strongly over the last week or so. Developed markets over this period were generally up by around 7-10%

to 12th December 2011

Tue, 13 Dec 2011 23:44:39 -0100

Last week, as so many weeks previously, was all about Europe. It culminated in the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on Thursday and the Council of Ministers meeting on Thursday and Friday.

to 9th January 2012

Thu, 12 Jan 2012 08:31:40 -0100

Market Movements It has been a positive start to 2012 in terms of returns for equity and commodity investors. For those invested in bonds, it has been a pretty flat first week for government bonds, while returns for investment grade and high yield bonds have been broadly positive, tracing the uptick in global equity markets. In the currency world, the most obvious trends so far this year have been the weakness of the euro and the strength of the dollar against most currencies. So, what lies behind these moves? As last year ended and this one began, US economic data releases tended to maintain the positive trend which they have been establishing since the end of November...

to 9th January 2012

Thu, 12 Jan 2012 08:33:04 -0100

It has been a positive start to 2012 in terms of returns for equity and commodity investors. For those invested in bonds, it has been a pretty flat first week for government bonds, while returns for investment grade and high yield bonds have been broadly positive, tracing the uptick in global equity markets. In the currency world, the most obvious trends so far this year have been the weakness of the euro and the strength of the dollar against most currencies. So, what lies behind these moves? As last year ended and this one began, US economic data releases tended to maintain the positive trend which they have been establishing since the end of November...

to 13th January 2012

Tue, 17 Jan 2012 04:33:11 -0100

This week has been relatively quiet in terms of market moves. It seems a useful time to take stock of the market background of the last three months - a period which can be best described as patchy. There has been meaningful dispersion across equity returns between countries, but this has occurred around a fairly flat average trend. US equities have outperformed, up by around 5%, and European equities have continued to underperform, falling 10% in the last three months. Over the same period UK equities were pretty flat and Japanese, down slightly. There has also been significant divergence within emerging markets; Brazilian shares are on average up 5%, whereas Chinese and Indian stocks have fallen around 10%. ...

to 20th January 2012

Tue, 24 Jan 2012 23:43:56 -0100

It was another strong week for risk assets. We saw, for example, the UK stock market rising by 1.9%, the US market by close to 2%. In emerging markets Russia rose 3.5%, Turkey by almost 6% and in Asia both Hong Kong and Korean indices posted gains of over 4%. This has been the best start to the year for the S&P 500 since 1987, which as at this morning (23 Jan) is up 4.6% year to date. Many other markets, notably Hong Kong, Korea and Brazil have also enjoyed a strong start to 2012.

to 30th January 2012

Wed, 01 Feb 2012 08:57:12 -0100

Following another positive week for risk assets, we will put recent moves into context and ask to what extent the good outcomes in January have set the scene for the rest of the year. Since the start of the year US equities have risen around 5%, European stocks are slightly higher having climbed almost 7%, and we have seen some pretty strong returns in many emerging markets. India has led the way with a gain of 20%, retracing some of the market’s underperformance last year. At the same time there have been reasonable gains in commodity prices; copper is up around 10% and gold slightly higher, but the gains have not been universal, with oil and wheat lagging the rally.

to 6th February 2012

Tue, 07 Feb 2012 10:18:59 -0100

It has been another very strong week for risk assets: the S&P 500 was up 2%; the FTSE 100 Index rose 3%; most of the major European indices were also up 3-4%; in emerging markets, Brazil rose 4%, and many of the Asian markets were up 1-2%. There was a strong risk-on trend all week, capped on Friday by the excellent figures for new US jobs and falling US unemployment. We’re seeing a series of events that represents a particularly sweet spot for equity investors. On the one hand we have central banks around the world loosening policy, with the US Federal Reserve effectively stating that it is aiming for a nominal growth rate of around 4%, the level at which jobs start to be created...

to 13th February 2012

Sun, 19 Feb 2012 21:11:19 -0100

Over the past few days we have seen slight risk-off behaviour in financial markets. In particular, European equities are down by around 3% from their peak, given renewed concerns about Greek financing. Nevertheless, the main contours of market trends so far this year remain intact and overall we remain in a partial risk-on environment. Since January risk-on behaviour has been very obvious in equity markets; developed market indices are typically up by between 5% and 10% and there have been strong returns in many emerging market indices. It has also been evident in currency markets where a number of emerging market currencies have appreciated, notably the Brazilian real and Indian rupee....

to 13th February 2012

Sun, 19 Feb 2012 21:11:38 -0100